What FM 100-14 tells us

Risk management guru John Adams gave a talk back a few years ago entitled “Does the Royal Navy have enough accidents?” In this talk, he noted how the Royal Navy tends to be fairly risk averse in time of peace, but understands that risks are necessary in time of war. He then asked if the training that’s suitable for peacetime operations is really suitable for an organization whose ultimate purpose includes winning wars. Is the risk management mindset that’s needed in a peacetime navy even useful in time of war?

I haven’t seen any data from the Royal Navy, but the data that I’ve seen from the US Army leads me to believe that the difference between the ways that military organizations need to manage risks in peace or war isn't really that great. Here’s the data from The US Army’s Field Manual (FM) 100-14, Risk Management, that led me to this conclusion. This compares the number of accidental losses to the losses due to enemy action that the US Army has had in the past few wars that they’re fought. Historically, there are more losses due to accidents than due to enemy action.

World War II

1942-1945

Korean War

1950-1952

Vietnam War

1965-1972

Gulf War

1990-1991

Accidents

56%

44%

54%

75%

Friendly Fire

1%

1%

1%

5%

Enemy Action

43%

55%

45%

20%

US Army battle and non-battle casualties according to FM 100-14.

Based on the US Army’s experience, it looks it may be more important to deal with reducing losses due to accidents than it is to worry about fighting the enemy. After all, if you’re careful, you can probably reduce your losses due to accidents, but you much less influence over what your enemy will do or try to do.

How can we apply this to the field of information security?

Information security is not that different from fighting a war. Instead of battling enemy forces for the control of terrain, information security organizations battle with hackers over control of sensitive information. There’s no distinction between peace and war in this conflict, but there is roughly the same difference between losses due to accidents and due to enemy action. With sensitive data, you can either lose it due to human error or you can lose it when you’re hacked. Losing it due to human error corresponds roughly to the Army’s losses due to accidents or friendly fire, and losing it when you’re hacked corresponds roughly to the Army’s losses due to enemy action. Which causes the loss of more data – human error or being hacked?

The 2008 edition of CompTIA’s Trends in Information Security report, estimated that 30 percent of serious data breaches are caused by human errors, another 30 percent are caused by a hacker taking advantage of a human error, and only 40 percent are caused by a hacker actively overcoming flaws in technology. These numbers are quite a bit different than they were five years ago. The 2003 edition of the same report estimated that only 8 percent of serious data breaches didn’t involve some sort of human error. People are getting better at protecting sensitive data, but they still not very good at it. It’s still the case that most serious data breaches are caused by a failure of people instead of a failure of technology.

So just like it’s important for an army to worry as much about accidents as it does about enemy forces, it’s just as important for information security organizations to worry about human errors as it is for them to worry about being hacked. And just like an army can definitely reduce its losses due to accidents but has less influence over losses due to the actions of their enemies, information security organizations can reduce losses due to human error but have less influence over losses due to hackers. The threat from hackers is bad enough by itself. Don’t make their job any easier by making human errors more common than they have to be. Training is cheaper and easier than buying and supporting security technologies. Don’t overlook it.

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